Moscow: Russia's formal recognition of the Taliban's rule in Afghanistan last month has significantly advanced the group's four-year quest for international legitimacy. While largely symbolic, this move could offer Russia strategic advantages by challenging Western norms and reasserting its influence in global affairs, especially after setbacks in regions like the Middle East.
According to Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, Russia's decision positions it as a bold global power and may prompt other nations, particularly in Central Asia, to normalize relations with the Taliban. Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, for instance, are showing signs of warming ties, potentially influenced by Moscow's lead to foster collective counterterrorism efforts.
Countries aligned with Russia, such as Belarus, may follow suit, while China has expressed support for Russia's recognition, acknowledging a policy of friendship with the Afghan people. However, Beijing has not clarified if this will extend to formal recognition. Meanwhile, Iran maintains economic and diplomatic engagement with the Taliban but remains wary of formally recognizing the group.
Caution continues among Arab states in the Persian Gulf, with the United Arab Emirates hesitating due to its Western alliances and Saudi Arabia prioritizing domestic reforms over risky diplomatic endorsements. Qatar and Oman engage pragmatically with the Taliban but avoid full recognition to sidestep U.S. scrutiny.
The main benefit for Russia is enhanced collaboration against security threats, particularly against the Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISKP), according to Aleksei Sakharov of the Observer Research Foundation. ISKP has expanded beyond Afghanistan, with notable attacks, including a high-profile 2024 assault in Russia. However, Sakharov suggests that the Kremlin's recognition is more symbolic and may not significantly enhance Russia's position in Afghanistan.
The Taliban stands to gain international legitimacy and potential economic engagement from Russia's endorsement. Recognition from a UN Security Council permanent member like Russia strengthens the Taliban's negotiating position, potentially allowing it to engage internationally without immediate demands for reforms on issues like women's rights.
Former Afghan legislator Shukria Barakzai, speaking to RFE/RL's Radio Azadi, cautioned that Russia's stance prioritizes the Taliban's interests over broader Afghan concerns. She dismissed speculation about economic benefits, asserting that formal recognition by Russia might not yield economic advantages for Afghans.